Sandy Hutchens brings you graphs on delinquencies and foreclosures.
There are now more than 3 million mortgage loans 60+ delinquent based on the Hope Now statistics. This covers approximately 85% of the total industry.
There are far more prime loans delinquent than subprime, although a much higher percentage of subprime (18.4%) vs prime (4.24%).
The second graph shows foreclosure starts and completions.
Foreclosure starts are above 250 thousand per month, and completions close to 100 thousand per month. There is a lag between start and completion, and a number of loans cure or are modified – but it does appear completions will increase in the 2nd half of 2009 based on the surge in starts at the beginning of the year.
May Brings Further Price Appreciation to Houston’s Housing Market
Single-family home sales reach the highest volume of 2009
HOUSTON — (June 16, 2009) — Sales of single-family homes for the greater Houston area achieved the highest volume of 2009 in May, and average and median home prices climbed to the highest levels since August 2008, showing signs of a real estate market that is benefiting from seasonal spring home buying. However, compared to one year earlier, overall May property sales were down 23.3 percent and sales of single-family homes dropped 21.2 percent, according to new monthly data compiled by the Houston Association of REALTORS® (HAR).
At $157,450, the May single-family home median price – the figure at which half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less – rose 1.6 percent versus one year earlier. The average price of a single-family home in Houston edged up 0.3 percent last month to $213,474 compared to May 2008.
Sales of foreclosure properties continued to shrink in May. Those properties, which typically sell below market prices, made up 19.9 percent of all single-family home sales in the Houston area. That compares to 34.0 percent in January, 28.0 percent in February, 24.5 percent in March and 23.6 percent in April. The median price of May foreclosure sales reported in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) tumbled 5.3 percent from $89,900 to $85,108 on a year-over-year basis.
Sales of all property types in Houston for May totaled 5,539, off 23.3 percent compared to May 2008. Total dollar volume for properties sold during the month was $1.1 billion versus $1.5 billion one year earlier, a 23.8 percent decline.
Demand for rental properties eased slightly in May, with leases of single-family homes up 0.1 percent and leases of townhouses and condominiums up 6.2 percent on a year-over-year basis. This may be an indication that consumers are growing more inclined to purchase rather than lease homes, especially as interest rates—still at historically low levels—begin to rise.
“The more I speak with real estate associations around the country, the more I appreciate the strength with which the Houston market has weathered the economic downturn,” said Vicki Fullerton, HAR chair and broker of record at RE/MAX of The Woodlands & Spring. “Our current housing climate has been performing at about 2004 levels while other regions of the U.S. are suffering what Houston endured back in the 1980s,” she added. “Many Houston Realtors are reporting increased activity this spring, and we hope that translates to measurable improvement in overall market performance.”
May Monthly Market Comparison
The month of May brought Houston’s overall housing market mixed results when all listing categories are compared to May of 2008. Total property sales and total dollar volume fell on a year-over-year basis while average and median single-family home sales prices rose.
The number of available properties, or active listings, at the end of May fell 15.1 percent from May 2008 to 45,282. That is just 13 more active listings than one month earlier, in April 2009, and continues to reflect balanced levels of housing inventory.
Month-end pending sales—those listings expected to close within the next 30 days—totaled 3,637, which was 24.7 percent lower than last year and suggests another decline in sales when the June numbers are tallied. The month’s inventory of single-family homes for May came in at 6.2 months, down 5.4 percent from one year earlier. The national month’s inventory of single-family homes rose slightly to 10.2 months, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).
CATEGORIES
MAY 2008
MAY 2009
PERCENT CHANGE
Total property sales
7,218
5,539
-23.3%
Total dollar volume
$1,497,152,151
$1,140,088.553
-23.8%
Average single-family sales price
$212,872
$213,474
0.3%
Median single-family sales price
$155,000
$157,450
1.6%
Total active listings
53,305
45,282
-15.1%
Total pending sales
4,828
3,637
-24.7%
Months inventory*
6.5
6.2
-5.4%
* Months inventory estimates the number of months it will take to deplete current active inventory based on the prior 12 months sales activity. This figure is representative of the single-family homes market.
Single-Family Homes Update
At $213,474, the average sales price for single-family homes rose 0.3 percent from May 2008, when it was $212,872. The figure is at its highest level since last August. The median price of single-family homes in April was $157,450, up 1.6 percent from one year earlier. The national single-family median price reported by NAR is $169,800, illustrating the continued higher value and lower cost of living that the Houston market offers consumers.
May sales of single-family homes in Houston totaled 4,797, down 21.2 percent from May 2008, and accounted for the 21st consecutive monthly drop. However, that volume is the highest so far for 2009. Year-over-year sales of single-family homes priced at $80,000 and below declined 12.3 percent in May, reflecting tapering foreclosure-related transactions.
HAR also reports existing home statistics for the single-family home segment of the real estate market. In May 2009, existing single-family home sales totaled 4,019, a 21.4 percent decrease from May 2008. At $196,866, the average sales price for existing homes in the Houston area rose 0.5 percent compared to last year. The median sales price of $147,400 for the month was up 1.6 percent from one year earlier.
Townhouse/Condo Update
The number of townhouses and condominiums sold in May fell compared to one year earlier. In the greater Houston area, 399 units were sold last month versus 618 properties in May 2008, translating to a 35.4 percent decrease in year-over-year sales. However, that still represents the highest sales volume for all of 2009.
The average price of a townhouse/condominium fell to $156,907, down 11.1 percent from one year earlier. The median price declined 18.7 percent to $125,950 from May 2008 to May 2009.
Lease Property Update
Demand for single-family rentals eased in May, and may suggest that conditions—particularly for first-time homebuyers—have improved to the point where consumers are ready to purchase. Single-family home rentals rose 0.1 percent last month compared to a year earlier. Year-over-year townhouse/condominium rentals rose 6.2 percent.
Canada’s hoteliers were not optimistic in their outlook for the second quarter of 2009. Their business expectations were more negative than they were the first quarter.
Over three-quarters (78%) of hoteliers expected the number of room nights booked and the occupancy rates to be lower for the second quarter, compared with the same quarter last year. Similarly, 73% anticipated fewer corporate travellers.
More than half of hotel operators (57%) reported that they were expecting average daily room rates to be lower, compared with 10% that anticipated rates would be higher.
Almost three-quarters of respondents expected that the number of hours worked by their employees would decline, while 2% expected increases.
Over half of respondents cited regional economic conditions as a major impediment. In contrast, 12% indicated this as an impediment one year ago. The next two most-cited impediments were excess room supply (36%), and exchange rate fluctuations (28%). Reviewed by Sandy Hutchens.
The Canadian passenger bus and urban transit industries saw their combined financial performance grow in 2007. For the year, notes Sandy Hutchens, total revenue for bus-related industries rose 6.9% to $10.1 billion, while expenses increased at a slower pace, rising 4.8% to $8.0 billion. As a result of the strong growth in revenues, net income for the industries advanced 16.2% to $2.1 billion. The urban transit industry continued to account for the majority of the revenue generated by the bus industries in 2007. For the year, its revenue reached $7.2 billion, up 7.9%, more than twice the rate of growth posted for the industry’s expenses. The urban transit industry also continued to be the main employer within the bus industries in 2007, with its employment increasing 4.4% to more than 47,000. Overall, the bus industries employed more than 91,000 people in 2007.
Current dollar sales for the food services and drinking places industry increased 0.9% from the previous month to $4.0 billion in January.The price of food purchased in restaurants increased by 0.4% between December and January, according to the Consumer Price Index.All sectors of the industry posted gains in sales compared with December. Among the four sectors, limited-service restaurants (+1.6%) recorded the largest increase in January. Full-service restaurants, where patrons order and pay for meals at their table, saw their sales advance 0.5%.In the special food services sector, comprising food service contractors, caterers and mobile food services, sales rose 0.3%, while sales in drinking places increased 1.0%. All provinces posted an increased in sales except Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Quebec.
First Nations children aged 6 to 14 who lived off reserve were as likely as all children in Canada to be doing well in school (based on parents’ knowledge of their child’s school work, including report cards).
In 2006, about 7 in 10 off-reserve First Nations children aged 6 to 14 were reported by their parents to be doing very well or well in school. These findings are similar to those for children aged 6 to 14 in the general Canadian population.
First Nations girls were more likely to be reported as doing very well or well in school, as compared with First Nations boys. These findings are also similar to those for the general population in Canada.
Among First Nations girls aged 6 to 14 who lived off reserve, three-quarters were reported by their parents as doing very well or well in school, compared with 65% of their male counterparts.
According to the 2006 Census, there were 78,325 First Nations children aged 6 to 14 living off reserve in Canada. These children represented about 2% of all Canadian children in this age group.
The off-reserve First Nations population is young. Census data showed that in 2006, 19% of the off-reserve First Nations population was between the ages of 6 and 14, compared with 11% of the total Canadian population.
Sandy Hutchens points out, Majority of parents satisfied with school practices
The parents of over 90% of off-reserve First Nations children agreed or strongly agreed that their child’s school provided enough information on their child’s academic progress, attendance and behaviour.
Similarly, parents of most of these children were satisfied with the level of discipline, the quality of teaching, and the availability of extracurricular activities at their child’s school.
The parents of about 83% of children were satisfied with how their child’s school was preparing the child to make choices about the future.
Parents of a majority of children agreed or strongly agreed that their child was challenged to work at their full potential (85%), and that their child’s school had high academic standards (80%).
Factors associated with perceived achievement at school
A number of factors were associated with perceived achievement at school among off-reserve First Nations children, after holding constant other factors such as gender and age.
Factors associated with relatively high perceived achievement at school included getting along well with teachers, or with friends and classmates; having parents who were strongly satisfied with school practices (such as the school providing information on the child’s academic progress, attendance and behaviour); reading books everyday; playing sports at least once a week; or participating in art or music lessons at least once a week.
Higher household income was also found to be associated with better school achievement. All other factors being equal, off-reserve First Nations children who were in households in the highest household income range were more likely to be doing very well or well at school than children who were in the lowest range.
Factors associated with relatively low perceived achievement at school included having missed school for a period of two or more weeks in a row during the school year; having been diagnosed with a learning disability or with attention deficit disorder; and having parents who had attended residential schools.
Off-reserve First Nations children whose parents had attended residential schools were less likely to do very well or well than those whose parents had not. About 12% of off-reserve First Nations children had parents (one or both) who indicated that they had been students in the residential school system that operated across Canada between 1830 and the 1990s. Reviewed by Sandy Hutchens.