Wednesday January 20th 2010, 1:29 pm
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Housing Affordability

housing affordability

  • House price to Earnings ratio
  • Mortgage costs to Incomes ratios

Overpriced Houses

houses

The housing Bubble was a global phenomenon.

The Housing Crash

house-price-fall

Housing Market and Economy

It is no conincidence that the fall in house prices led to a fall in economic growth.

Falling house prices depressess confidence and creates negative equity. It leads to equity withdrawal drying up and consumer spending falling.

growth


Interest Rates

In response to falling house prices, the MPC cut interest rates to try and boost spending. But, even with lower interest rates, people didn’t return to the housing market.

interest rates

This was a reflection that even cheaper interest rates don’t solve the shortage of finance experienced in the credit crunch.



Graphs on Delinquencies and Foreclosures
Tuesday August 11th 2009, 12:40 pm
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Sandy Hutchens brings you graphs on delinquencies and foreclosures.

Hope Now Delinquent

There are now more than 3 million mortgage loans 60+ delinquent based on the Hope Now statistics. This covers approximately 85% of the total industry.

There are far more prime loans delinquent than subprime, although a much higher percentage of subprime (18.4%) vs prime (4.24%).

Hope Now Foreclosures The second graph shows foreclosure starts and completions.

Foreclosure starts are above 250 thousand per month, and completions close to 100 thousand per month. There is a lag between start and completion, and a number of loans cure or are modified – but it does appear completions will increase in the 2nd half of 2009 based on the surge in starts at the beginning of the year.



Sandy Hutchens Looks at Outstanding Mortgage Debt Statistics
Monday August 10th 2009, 4:55 pm
Filed under: Canada, Sandy Hutchens, Uncategorized  Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,
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Mortgage Debt Outstanding (1.54) 

Millions of dollars, end of period
Type of holder and property 2005 2006 2007 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1
1 All holders 12,099,296 13,491,228 14,561,642 14,683,132 14,720,515 14,692,722 14,624,659 14,615,896
By type of property
2 One- to four- family residences 9,384,226 10,444,617 11,137,189 11,199,350 11,185,408 11,133,375 11,038,291 11,031,450
3 Multifamily residences 688,344 743,769 842,650 857,602 874,263 889,330 897,903 903,982
4 Nonfarm, nonresidential 1,925,208 2,201,368 2,474,024 2,517,570 2,551,401 2,559,735 2,577,341 2,568,492
5 Farm 101,518 101,475 107,778 108,610 109,442 110,283 111,124 111,972
By type of holder
6 Major financial institutions 4,396,243 4,780,819 5,067,153 5,127,631 5,112,195 5,071,950 5,041,319 5,036,413
7 Commercial banks  2,958,042 3,403,052 3,645,724 3,685,963 3,662,246 3,850,431 3,838,687 3,850,839
8 One- to four-family 1,793,029 2,084,510 2,208,229 2,217,309 2,157,985 2,287,714 2,252,227 2,257,315
9 Multifamily residences 138,702 157,555 168,407 172,942 176,145 210,224 210,782 212,447
10 Nonfarm, nonresidential 989,372 1,123,210 1,228,490 1,254,801 1,286,891 1,310,951 1,333,820 1,338,900
11 Farm 36,939 37,777 40,598 40,911 41,225 41,542 41,858 42,177
12 Savings Institutions  1,152,738 1,073,967 1,095,256 1,111,766 1,115,558 883,637 860,204 849,786
13 One- to four-family 953,819 867,831 878,958 884,834 884,534 691,595 666,338 654,956
14 Multifamily residences 98,352 95,792 92,705 94,588 96,924 65,202 65,199 65,714
15 Nonfarm, nonresidential 99,951 109,604 122,711 131,434 133,187 125,949 127,748 128,206
16 Farm 616 740 882 910 913 891 919 910
17 Life insurance companies 285,463 303,800 326,173 329,902 334,391 337,882 342,428 335,788
18 One- to four-family 7,746 11,028 10,991 11,153 11,365 11,509 13,459 10,514
19 Multifamily residences 42,440 46,078 51,837 48,890 49,558 50,077 50,673 51,242
20 Nonfarm, nonresidential 224,258 235,402 252,193 258,621 262,144 264,885 266,798 262,447
21 Farm 11,019 11,292 11,152 11,238 11,324 11,411 11,498 11,586
22 Federal and related agencies 666,601 688,678 726,458 742,109 756,572 753,147 789,386 810,895
23 Government National Mortgage Association 34 27 22 24 38 38 41 43
24 One- to four-family 34 27 22 24 38 38 41 43
25 Multifamily residences 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
26 Farmers Home Administration 72,937 76,448 78,411 78,941 80,357 79,962 82,517 83,926
27 One- to four-family 13,014 12,918 13,024 13,066 13,611 13,131 13,288 13,370
28 Multifamily residences 11,493 11,374 11,282 11,249 11,205 11,101 11,069 11,043
29 Nonfarm, nonresidential 45,213 48,945 50,839 51,399 52,271 52,271 54,670 56,059
30 Farm 3,217 3,212 3,266 3,228 3,271 3,460 3,490 3,454
31 Feder Housing Admin. and Dept. of Veterans Affairs 4,819 5,023 4,927 4,917 5,021 4,562 4,690 4,690
32 One- to four-family 1,370 1,625 1,779 1,853 1,910 1,406 1,403 1,403
33 Multifamily residences 3,449 3,398 3,147 3,063 3,111 3,156 3,287 3,287
34 Resolution Trust Corporation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
35 One- to four-family 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
36 Multifamily residences 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
37 Nonfarm, nonresidential 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
38 Farm 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
39 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation 8 3 2 2 2 6 10 9
40 One- to four-family 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 1
41 Multifamily residences 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 2
42 Nonfarm, nonresidential 5 2 1 1 1 4 6 6
43 Farm 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
44 Federal National Mortgage Association 366,680 383,045 403,577 411,838 420,992 407,671 429,493 436,369
45 One- to four-family 314,801 322,703 311,831 313,458 315,242 294,847 312,052 317,195
46 Multifamily residences 51,879 60,342 91,746 98,380 105,750 112,824 117,441 119,174
47 Federal Land Banks 54,640 59,897 67,423 68,964 71,742 74,659 76,503 77,203
48 One- to four-family 14,515 19,016 22,067 23,258 25,686 28,249 30,003 30,577
49 Farm 40,125 40,881 45,356 45,706 46,056 46,410 46,500 46,626
50 Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation 61,428 65,536 79,776 86,105 88,601 97,744 108,281 120,920
51 One- to four-family 20,378 20,543 23,876 26,802 26,471 31,187 37,644 48,782
52 Multifamily residences 41,050 44,993 55,900 59,303 62,130 66,557 70,637 72,138
53 Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation 804 778 768 759 784 694 786 670
54 Farm 804 778 768 759 784 694 786 670
55 Mortgage pools or trusts 5,682,421 6,609,767 7,417,466 7,479,755 7,542,528 7,583,397 7,552,468 7,543,311
56 Government National Mortgage Association 405,246 410,021 443,461 461,481 510,217 576,761 636,612 679,471
57 One- to four-family 371,484 373,886 406,822 424,708 473,272 539,508 599,285 641,928
58 Multifamily residences 33,762 36,135 36,640 36,772 36,945 37,253 37,327 37,543
59 Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation 1,309,024 1,450,721 1,717,342 1,761,588 1,800,317 1,809,913 1,801,735 1,809,317
60 One- to four-family 1,294,521 1,442,306 1,706,684 1,750,656 1,789,144 1,798,681 1,786,906 1,794,426
61 Multifamily residences 14,503 8,415 10,658 10,933 11,173 11,233 14,829 14,891
62 Federal National Mortgage Association 1,826,779 1,973,329 2,298,191 2,373,863 2,444,639 2,500,521 2,517,789 2,548,402
63 One- to four-family 1,753,708 1,894,396 2,206,263 2,278,908 2,346,853 2,400,500 2,417,077 2,446,466
64 Multifamily residences 73,071 78,933 91,928 94,955 97,786 100,021 100,712 101,936
65 Farmers Home Administration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
66 One- to four-family 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
67 Multifamily residences 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
68 Nonfarm, nonresidential 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
69 Farm 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
70 Private mortgage conduits 2,140,528 2,772,514 2,953,929 2,878,370 2,783,048 2,691,478 2,591,659 2,501,505
71 One- to four-family 1,620,953 2,134,687 2,168,610 2,101,280 2,014,661 1,936,396 1,848,022 1,765,027
72 Multifamily residences 89,400 103,398 125,409 122,837 119,957 117,499 114,464 113,230
73 Nonfarm, nonresidential 430,175 534,428 659,910 654,253 648,430 637,583 629,173 623,248
74 Farm 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
75 Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation 844 3,183 4,543 4,453 4,307 4,723 4,673 4,616
76 Farm 844 3,183 4,543 4,453 4,307 4,723 4,673 4,616
77 Individuals and others  1,354,031 1,411,964 1,350,565 1,333,637 1,309,220 1,284,228 1,241,486 1,225,277
78 One- to four-family 1,119,632 1,161,248 1,086,509 1,061,509 1,035,628 1,010,828 973,506 962,409
79 Multifamily residences 90,210 97,327 102,963 103,662 103,552 104,156 101,454 101,309
80 Nonfarm, nonresidential 136,234 149,777 159,880 167,061 168,477 168,093 165,126 159,626
81 Farm 7,954 3,612 1,213 1,405 1,562 1,152 1,400 1,933